Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 163 Records) |
Query Trace: Gates A[original query] |
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Heat-related emergency department visits - United States, May-September 2023
Vaidyanathan A , Gates A , Brown C , Prezzato E , Bernstein A . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (15) 324-329 Unprecedented heat waves can affect all persons, but some are more sensitive to the effects of heat, including children and adults with underlying health conditions, pregnant women, and outdoor workers. Many regions of the United States experienced record-breaking high temperatures in 2023, with populations exposed to extremely high temperatures for prolonged periods. CDC examined emergency department (ED) visits associated with heat-related illness (HRI) from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program and compared daily HRI ED visit rates during the warm-season months (May-September) of 2023 with those during 2018-2022. In the 2023 warm-season months, daily HRI ED visit rates peaked in several regions and remained elevated for a prolonged duration. More males than females sought care in EDs for HRI, especially males aged 18-64 years. CDC issued multiple public health alerts using the Epidemic Information Exchange system to bring attention to increases in ED utilization for HRI. Deaths and illnesses associated with heat exposure are a continuing public health concern as climate change results in longer, hotter, and more frequent episodes of extreme heat. Near real-time monitoring of weather conditions and adverse health outcomes can guide public health practitioners' timing of risk communication and implementation of prevention measures associated with extreme heat. |
Data management needs assessment for the scale-up of district health information system and introduction of routine (essential) immunization module in Bauchi State, Nigeria, 2015
Adeoye OB , Adegoke OJ , Nnadi C , Elmousaad H , Akerele K , Nguku P , Makinde I , Franka R , Waziri NE . Pan Afr Med J 12/28/2021 40 13 INTRODUCTION: the National Primary Health Care Development Agency, African Field Epidemiology Network, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation are implementing a Routine Immunization (RI) Module as part of their Routine Health Data Management System based on the 2013 - 2015 Accountability Framework for RI in Nigeria. To inform planning and evidence-based decision making, a data management needs assessment was conducted in Bauchi state which was one of the states selected for the deployment of the DHIS2 RI module. METHODS: desk reviews were conducted, and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered in four Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Bauchi state that were selected based on the initial evaluation of the performance of all 20 Bauchi LGAs. Ganjuwa and Shira were selected as high-performing LGAs and Alkaleri and Bogoro as low-performing LGAs. Four Health Facilities (HF) were selected in each LGA based on rural or urban classification, type of HFs (private or public), security and accessibility. RESULTS: local Immunization Officers (LIOs) prepare monthly reports in high-performing LGAs, and Community Health Care workers are mostly (69%) responsible for report compilation at the HFs. Shira and Alkaleri met 77% and 44% of training indicator targets, respectively, in the previous 12 months. Data recording and reporting was the type of training received the most by health facility personnel. Functioning refrigerators were in all visited LGAs, working thermometer and updated temperature monitoring charts were available in all the cold chain stores. However, no health facility reported having available computers for data-related activities. CONCLUSION: this assessment provided an improved understanding of the Bauchi state Routine Health Data Management System and informed the content of the state-wide scale-up. |
Estimating the subnational prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections in 75 endemic countries, 1990-2019: a modelling study
GRAM Typhoid Collaborators , Munywoki P K , Verani J R . Lancet Glob Health 2024 12 (3) e406-e418 BACKGROUND: Enteric fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Enteric fever is preventable through the provision of clean water and adequate sanitation and can be successfully treated with antibiotics. However, high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) compromise the effectiveness of treatment. We provide estimates of the prevalence of AMR S Typhi and S Paratyphi A in 75 endemic countries, including 30 locations without data. METHODS: We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling framework to estimate the percentage of multidrug resistance (MDR), fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS), and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections for 1403 administrative level one districts in 75 endemic countries from 1990 to 2019. We incorporated data from a comprehensive systematic review, public health surveillance networks, and large multicountry studies on enteric fever. Estimates of the prevalence of AMR and the number of AMR infections (based on enteric fever incidence estimates by the Global Burden of Diseases study) were produced at the country, super-region, and total endemic area level for each year of the study. FINDINGS: We collated data from 601 sources, comprising 184 225 isolates of S Typhi and S Paratyphi A, covering 45 countries over 30 years. We identified a decline of MDR S Typhi in south Asia and southeast Asia, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, the overall prevalence increased from 6·0% (95% uncertainty interval 4·3-8·0) in 1990 to 72·7% (67·7-77·3) in 2019. Starting from low levels in 1990, the prevalence of FQNS S Typhi increased rapidly, reaching 95·2% (91·4-97·7) in south Asia in 2019. This corresponded to 2·5 million (1·5-3·8) MDR S Typhi infections and 7·4 million (4·7-11·3) FQNS S Typhi infections in endemic countries in 2019. The prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant S Typhi remained low across the whole endemic area over the study period, except for Pakistan where prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi reached 61·0% (58·0-63·8) in 2019. For S Paratyphi A, we estimated low prevalence of MDR and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in all endemic countries, but a drastic increase of FQNS, which reached 95·0% (93·7-96·1; 3·5 million [2·2-5·6] infections) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the prevalence of MDR, FQNS, and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections in endemic countries, spanning the last 30 years. Our analysis highlights the increasing levels of AMR in this preventable infection and serves as a resource to guide urgently needed public health interventions, such as improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene and typhoid fever vaccination campaigns. FUNDING: Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Safety of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) in infants and young children aged 1 to <5 years and lot-to-lot consistency of the immune response to nOPV2 in infants in The Gambia: a phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled trial
Ochoge M . Lancet 2024 BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been engineered to improve the genetic stability of Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and reduce the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. This trial aimed to provide key safety and immunogenicity data required for nOPV2 licensure and WHO prequalification. METHODS: This phase 3 trial recruited infants aged 18 to <52 weeks and young children aged 1 to <5 years in The Gambia. Infants randomly assigned to receive one or two doses of one of three lots of nOPV2 or one lot of bivalent OPV (bOPV). Young children were randomised to receive two doses of nOPV2 lot 1 or bOPV. The primary immunogenicity objective was to assess lot-to-lot equivalence of the three nOPV2 lots based on one-dose type 2 poliovirus neutralising antibody seroconversion rates in infants. Equivalence was declared if the 95% CI for the three pairwise rate differences was within the -10% to 10% equivalence margin. Tolerability and safety were assessed based on the rates of solicited adverse events to 7 days, unsolicited adverse events to 28 days, and serious adverse events to 3 months post-dose. Stool poliovirus excretion was examined. The trial was registered as PACTR202010705577776 and is completed. FINDINGS: Between February and October, 2021, 2345 infants and 600 young children were vaccinated. 2272 (96·9%) were eligible for inclusion in the post-dose one per-protocol population. Seroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots. The minimum lower bound of the 95% CIs for the pairwise differences in seroconversion rates between lots was -5·8%. The maximum upper bound was 5·4%. Equivalence was therefore shown. Of those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule. The post-two-dose seroprotection rates, including participants who were both seronegative and seropositive at baseline, were 604 (92·9%) of 650 (95% CI 90·7-94·8) in infants and 276 (95·5%) of 289 (92·4-97·6) in young children. No safety concerns were identified. 7 days post-dose one, 78 (41·7%) of 187 (95% CI 34·6-49·1) infants were excreting the type 2 poliovirus. INTERPRETATION: nOPV2 was immunogenic and safe in infants and young children in The Gambia. The data support the licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Post-mortem investigation of deaths due to pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia from 2016 to 2022: an observational study
Mahtab S , Blau DM , Madewell ZJ , Ogbuanu I , Ojulong J , Lako S , Legesse H , Bangura JS , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Xerinda E , Fernandes F , Varo R , Sow SO , Kotloff KL , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Sidibe D , Onyango D , Akelo V , Gethi D , Verani JR , Revathi G , Scott JAG , Assefa N , Madrid L , Bizuayehu H , Tirfe TT , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Islam KM , Alam M , Zahid Hossain M , Dangor Z , Baillie VL , Hale M , Mutevedzi P , Breiman RF , Whitney CG , Madhi SA . Lancet Child Adolesc Health 2024 BACKGROUND: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network programme undertakes post-mortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), together with collection of ante-mortem clinical information, to investigate causes of childhood deaths across multiple countries. We aimed to evaluate the overall contribution of pneumonia in the causal pathway to death and the causative pathogens of fatal pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the CHAMPS Network. METHODS: In this observational study we analysed deaths occurring between Dec 16, 2016, and Dec 31, 2022, in the CHAMPS Network across six countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and one in South Asia (Bangladesh). A standardised approach of MITS was undertaken on decedents within 24-72 h of death. Diagnostic tests included blood culture, multi-organism targeted nucleic acid amplifications tests (NAATs) of blood and lung tissue, and histopathology examination of various organ tissue samples. An interdisciplinary expert panel at each site reviewed case data to attribute the cause of death and pathogenesis thereof on the basis of WHO-recommended reporting standards. FINDINGS: Pneumonia was attributed in the causal pathway of death in 455 (40·6%) of 1120 decedents, with a median age at death of 9 (IQR 4-19) months. Causative pathogens were identified in 377 (82·9%) of 455 pneumonia deaths, and multiple pathogens were implicated in 218 (57·8%) of 377 deaths. 306 (67·3%) of 455 deaths occurred in the community or within 72 h of hospital admission (presumed to be community-acquired pneumonia), with the leading bacterial pathogens being Streptococcus pneumoniae (108 [35·3%]), Klebsiella pneumoniae (78 [25·5%]), and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (37 [12·1%]). 149 (32·7%) deaths occurred 72 h or more after hospital admission (presumed to be hospital-acquired pneumonia), with the most common pathogens being K pneumoniae (64 [43·0%]), Acinetobacter baumannii (19 [12·8%]), S pneumoniae (15 [10·1%]), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15 [10·1%]). Overall, viruses were implicated in 145 (31·9%) of 455 pneumonia-related deaths, including 54 (11·9%) of 455 attributed to cytomegalovirus and 29 (6·4%) of 455 attributed to respiratory syncytial virus. INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia contributed to 40·6% of all childhood deaths in this analysis. The use of post-mortem MITS enabled biological ascertainment of the cause of death in the majority (82·9%) of childhood deaths attributed to pneumonia, with more than one pathogen being commonly implicated in the same case. The prominent role of K pneumoniae, non-typable H influenzae, and S pneumoniae highlight the need to review empirical management guidelines for management of very severe pneumonia in low-income and middle-income settings, and the need for research into new or improved vaccines against these pathogens. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Burden of child mortality from malaria in high endemic areas: results from the CHAMPS Network using minimally invasive tissue sampling
Ogbuanu IU , Otieno K , Varo R , Sow SO , Ojulong J , Duduyemi B , Kowuor D , Cain CJ , Rogena EA , Onyango D , Akelo V , Tippett Barr BA , terKuile F , Kotloff KL , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Juma J , Assefa N , Assegid N , Acham Y , Madrid L , Scott JAG , Arifeen SE , Gurley ES , Mahtab S , Dangor Z , Wadula J , Dutoit J , Madhi SA , Mandomando I , Torres-Fernandez D , Kincardett M , Mabunda R , Mutevedzi P , Madewell ZJ , Blau DM , Whitney CG , Samuels AM , Bassat Q . J Infect 2024 BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. However, accurate estimates of malaria prevalence and causality among patients who die at the country level are lacking due to the limited specificity of diagnostic tools used to attribute etiologies. Accurate estimates are crucial for prioritizing interventions and resources aimed at reducing malaria-related mortality. METHODS: Seven Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network sites collected comprehensive data on stillbirths and children <5 years, using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). A DeCoDe (Determination of Cause of Death) panel employed standardized protocols for assigning underlying, intermediate, and immediate causes of death, integrating sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory (including extensive microbiology, histopathology, and malaria testing), and verbal autopsy data. Analyses were conducted to ascertain the strength of evidence for cause of death (CoD), describe factors associated with malaria-related deaths, estimate malaria-specific mortality, and assess the proportion of preventable deaths. FINDINGS: Between December 3, 2016, and December 31, 2022, 2673 deaths underwent MITS and had a CoD attributed from four CHAMPS sites with at least 1 malaria-attributed death. No malaria-attributable deaths were documented among 891 stillbirths or 924 neonatal deaths, therefore this analysis concentrates on the remaining 858 deaths among children aged 1-59 months. Malaria was in the causal chain for 42.9% (126/294) of deaths from Sierra Leone, 31.4% (96/306) in Kenya, 18.2% (36/198) in Mozambique, 6.7% (4/60) in Mali, and 0.3% (1/292) in South Africa. Compared to non-malaria related deaths, malaria-related deaths skewed towards older infants and children (p<0.001), with 71.0% among ages 12-59 months. Malaria was the sole infecting pathogen in 184 (70.2%) of malaria-attributed deaths, whereas bacterial and viral co-infections were identified in the causal pathway in 24·0% and 12.2% of cases, respectively. Malnutrition was found at a similar level in the causal pathway of both malaria (26.7%) and non-malaria (30.7%, p=0.256) deaths. Less than two-thirds (164/262; 62.6%) of malaria deaths had received antimalarials prior to death. Nearly all (98·9%) malaria-related deaths were deemed preventable. INTERPRETATION: Malaria remains a significant cause of childhood mortality in the CHAMPS malaria-endemic sites. The high bacterial co-infection prevalence among malaria deaths underscores the potential benefits of antibiotics for severe malaria patients. Compared to non-malaria deaths, many of malaria-attributed deaths are preventable through accessible malaria control measures. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1126780]. |
Tolerability, safety, and immunogenicity of the novel oral polio vaccine type 2 in children aged 6 weeks to 59 months in an outbreak response campaign in The Gambia: an observational cohort study
Bashorun AO , Kotei L , Jawla O , Jallow AF , Saidy AJ , Kinteh MA , Kujabi A , Jobarteh T , Kanu FJ , Donkor SA , Ezeani E , Fofana S , Njie M , Ceesay L , Jafri B , Williams A , Jeffries D , Kotanmi B , Mainou BA , Ooko M , Clarke E . Lancet Infect Dis 2024 BACKGROUND: Novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been used to interrupt circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks following its WHO emergency use listing. This study reports data on the safety and immunogenicity of nOPV2 over two rounds of a campaign in The Gambia. METHODS: This observational cohort study collected baseline symptoms (vomiting, diarrhoea, irritability, reduced feeding, and reduced activity) and axillary temperature from children aged 6 weeks to 59 months in The Gambia before a series of two rounds of a nOPV2 campaign that took place on Nov 20-26, 2021, and March 19-22, 2022. Serum and stool samples were collected from a subset of the participants. The same symptoms were re-assessed during the week following each dose of nOPV2. Stool samples were collected on days 7 and 28, and serum was collected on day 28 following each dose. Adverse events, including adverse events of special interest, were documented for 28 days after each campaign round. Serum neutralising antibodies were measured by microneutralisation assay, and stool poliovirus excretion was measured by real-time RT-PCR. FINDINGS: Of the 5635 children eligible for the study, 5504 (97·7%) received at least one dose of nOPV2. There was no increase in axillary temperature or in any of the baseline symptoms following either rounds of the campaigns. There were no adverse events of special interest and no other safety signals of concern. Poliovirus type 2 seroconversion rates were 70% (95% CI 62 to 78; 87 of 124 children) following one dose of nOPV2 and 91% (85 to 95; 113 of 124 children) following two doses. Poliovirus excretion on day 7 was lower after the second round (162 of 459 samples; 35·3%, 95% CI 31·1 to 39·8) than after the first round (292 of 658 samples; 44·4%, 40·6 to 48·2) of the campaign (difference -9·1%; 95% CI -14·8 to -3·3), showing the induction of mucosal immunity. INTERPRETATION: In a campaign in west Africa, nOPV2 was well tolerated and safe. High rates of seroconversion and evidence of mucosal immunity support the licensure and WHO prequalification of this vaccine. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Child deaths caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia: a secondary analysis of Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data
Verani JR , Blau DM , Gurley ES , Akelo V , Assefa N , Baillie V , Bassat Q , Berhane M , Bunn J , Cossa ACA , El Arifeen S , Gunturu R , Hale M , Igunza A , Keita AM , Kenneh S , Kotloff KL , Kowuor D , Mabunda R , Madewell ZJ , Madhi S , Madrid L , Mahtab S , Miguel J , Murila FV , Ogbuanu IU , Ojulong J , Onyango D , Oundo JO , Scott JAG , Sow S , Tapia M , Traore CB , Velaphi S , Whitney CG , Mandomando I , Breiman RF . Lancet Microbe 2024 BACKGROUND: Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important cause of nosocomial and community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis in children, and antibiotic-resistant K pneumoniae is a growing public health threat. We aimed to characterise child mortality associated with this pathogen in seven high-mortality settings. METHODS: We analysed Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data on the causes of deaths in children younger than 5 years and stillbirths in sites located in seven countries across sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and south Asia (Bangladesh) from Dec 9, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. CHAMPS sites conduct active surveillance for deaths in catchment populations and following reporting of an eligible death or stillbirth seek consent for minimally invasive tissue sampling followed by extensive aetiological testing (microbiological, molecular, and pathological); cases are reviewed by expert panels to assign immediate, intermediate, and underlying causes of death. We reported on susceptibility to antibiotics for which at least 30 isolates had been tested, and excluded data on antibiotics for which susceptibility testing is not recommended for Klebsiella spp due to lack of clinical activity (eg, penicillin and ampicillin). FINDINGS: Among 2352 child deaths with cause of death assigned, 497 (21%, 95% CI 20-23) had K pneumoniae in the causal chain of death; 100 (20%, 17-24) had K pneumoniae as the underlying cause. The frequency of K pneumoniae in the causal chain was highest in children aged 1-11 months (30%, 95% CI 26-34; 144 of 485 deaths) and 12-23 months (28%, 22-34; 63 of 225 deaths); frequency by site ranged from 6% (95% CI 3-11; 11 of 184 deaths) in Bangladesh to 52% (44-61; 71 of 136 deaths) in Ethiopia. K pneumoniae was in the causal chain for 450 (22%, 95% CI 20-24) of 2023 deaths that occurred in health facilities and 47 (14%, 11-19) of 329 deaths in the community. The most common clinical syndromes among deaths with K pneumoniae in the causal chain were sepsis (44%, 95% CI 40-49; 221 of 2352 deaths), sepsis in conjunction with pneumonia (19%, 16-23; 94 of 2352 deaths), and pneumonia (16%, 13-20; 80 of 2352 deaths). Among K pneumoniae isolates tested, 121 (84%) of 144 were resistant to ceftriaxone and 80 (75%) of 106 to gentamicin. INTERPRETATION: K pneumoniae substantially contributed to deaths in the first 2 years of life across multiple high-mortality settings, and resistance to antibiotics used for sepsis treatment was common. Improved strategies are needed to rapidly identify and appropriately treat children who might be infected with this pathogen. These data suggest a potential impact of developing and using effective K pneumoniae vaccines in reducing neonatal, infant, and child deaths globally. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Safety and immunogenicity of shorter interval schedules of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 in infants: a phase 3, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority study in the Dominican Republic
Rivera Mejía L , Peña Méndez L , Bandyopadhyay AS , Gast C , Mazara S , Rodriguez K , Rosario N , Zhang Y , Mainou BA , Jimeno J , Aguirre G , Rüttimann R . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: The novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) is now authorised by a WHO emergency use listing and widely distributed to interrupt outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2. As protection of vulnerable populations, particularly young infants, could be facilitated by shorter intervals between the two recommended doses, we aimed to assess safety and non-inferiority of immunogenicity of nOPV2 in 1-week, 2-week, and 4-week schedules. METHODS: In this phase 3, open-label, randomised trial, healthy, full-term, infants aged 6-8 weeks from a hospital or a clinic in the Dominican Republic were randomly allocated (1:1:1 ratio) using a pre-prepared, computer-generated randomisation schedule to three groups to receive two doses of nOPV2 immunisations with a 1-week interval (group A), 2-week interval (group B), or 4-week interval (group C). The nOPV2 vaccine was given at a 0·1 mL dose and contained at least 10(5) 50% cell culture infective dose. Neutralising antibodies against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 were measured before each immunisation and 4 weeks after the second dose. The primary outcome was the type 2 seroconversion rate 28 days after the second dose, and the non-inferiority margin was defined as a lower bound 95% CI of greater than -10%. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed through diary cards completed by the parent or guardian. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05033561. FINDINGS: We enrolled 905 infants between Dec 16, 2021, and March 28, 2022. 872 infants were included in the per-protocol analyses: 289 in group A, 293 in group B, and 290 in group C. Type 2 seroconversion rates were 87·5% (95% CI 83·2 to 91·1) in group A (253 of 289 participants), 91·8% (88·1 to 94·7) in group B (269 of 293 participants), and 95·5% (92·5 to 97·6) in group C (277 of 290 participants). Non-inferiority was shown for group B compared with group C (difference in rates -3·7; 95% CI -7·9 to 0·3), but not for group A compared with group C (-8·0; -12·7 to -3·6). 4 weeks after the second nOPV2 dose, type 2 neutralising antibodies increased in all three groups such that over 95% of each group was seroprotected against polio type 2, although final geometric mean titres tended to be highest with longer intervals between doses. Immunisation with nOPV2 was well tolerated with no causal association to vaccination of any severe or serious adverse event; one death from septic shock during the study was unrelated to the vaccine. INTERPRETATION: Two nOPV2 doses administered 1 week or 2 weeks apart from age 6 weeks to 8 weeks were safe and immunogenic. Immune responses after a 2-week interval were non-inferior to those after the standard 4-week interval, but marked responses after a 1-week interval suggest that schedules with an over 1-week interval can be used to provide flexibility to campaigns to improve coverage and hasten protection during circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in children admitted with severe anaemia in malaria-endemic settings in Africa: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials
Phiri KS , Khairallah C , Kwambai TK , Bojang K , Dhabangi A , Opoka R , Idro R , Stepniewska K , van Hensbroek MB , John CC , Robberstad B , Greenwood B , Kuile FOT . Lancet Glob Health 2024 12 (1) e33-e44 BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia is associated with high in-hospital mortality among young children. In malaria-endemic areas, surviving children also have an increased risk of mortality or readmission after hospital discharge. We conducted a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to determine the efficacy of monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in children recovering from severe anaemia. METHODS: This analysis was conducted according to PRISMA-IPD guidelines. We searched multiple databases on Aug 28, 2023, without date or language restrictions, for randomised controlled trials comparing monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention with placebo or standard of care among children (aged <15 years) admitted with severe anaemia in malaria-endemic Africa. Trials using daily or weekly malaria prophylaxis were not eligible. The investigators from all eligible trials shared pseudonymised datasets, which were standardised and merged for analysis. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality during the intervention period. Analyses were performed in the modified intention-to-treat population, including all randomly assigned participants who contributed to the endpoint. Fixed-effects two-stage meta-analysis of risk ratios (RRs) was used to generate pooled effect estimates for mortality. Recurrent time-to-event data (readmissions or clinic visits) were analysed using one-stage mixed-effects Prentice-Williams-Peterson total-time models to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022308791. FINDINGS: Our search identified 91 articles, of which 78 were excluded by title and abstract, and a further ten did not meet eligibility criteria. Three double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, including 3663 children with severe anaemia, were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis; 3507 (95·7%) contributed to the modified intention-to-treat analysis. Participants received monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine until the end of the malaria transmission season (mean 3·1 courses per child [range 1-6]; n=1085; The Gambia), monthly artemether-lumefantrine given at the end of weeks 4 and 8 post discharge (n=1373; Malawi), or monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine given at the end of weeks 2, 6, and 10 post discharge (n=1049; Uganda and Kenya). During the intervention period, post-discharge malaria chemoprevention was associated with a 77% reduction in mortality (RR 0·23 [95% CI 0·08-0·70], p=0·0094, I(2)=0%) and a 55% reduction in all-cause readmissions (HR 0·45 [95% CI 0·36-0·56], p<0·0001) compared with placebo. The protective effect was restricted to the intervention period and was not sustained after the direct pharmacodynamic effect of the drugs had waned. The small number of trials limited our ability to assess heterogeneity, its sources, and publication bias. INTERPRETATION: In malaria-endemic Africa, post-discharge malaria chemoprevention reduces mortality and readmissions in recently discharged children recovering from severe anaemia. Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention could be a valuable strategy for the management of this group at high risk. Future research should focus on methods of delivery, options to prolong the protection duration, other hospitalised groups at high risk, and interventions targeting non-malarial causes of post-discharge morbidity. FUNDING: The Research-Council of Norway and the Bill-&-Melinda-Gates-Foundation through the Worldwide-Antimalarial-Research-Network. |
Heterogenous transmission and seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two demographically diverse populations with low vaccination uptake in Kenya, March and June 2021
Munywoki PK , Bigogo G , Nasimiyu C , Ouma A , Aol G , Oduor CO , Rono S , Auko J , Agogo GO , Njoroge R , Oketch D , Odhiambo D , Odeyo VW , Kikwai G , Onyango C , Juma B , Hunsperger E , Lidechi S , Ochieng CA , Lo TQ , Munyua P , Herman-Roloff A . Gates Open Res 2023 7 101 BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. METHODS: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. RESULTS: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. CONCLUSIONS: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings. |
Effect of primaquine dose on the risk of recurrence in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis
Commons RJ , Rajasekhar M , Edler P , Abreha T , Awab GR , Baird JK , Barber BE , Chu CS , Cui L , Daher A , Gonzalez-Ceron L , Grigg MJ , Hwang J , Karunajeewa H , Lacerda MVG , Ladeia-Andrade S , Lidia K , Llanos-Cuentas A , Longley RJ , Pereira DB , Pasaribu AP , Pukrittayakamee S , Rijal KR , Sutanto I , Taylor WRJ , Thanh PV , Thriemer K , Vieira JLF , Watson JA , Zuluaga-Idarraga LM , White NJ , Guerin PJ , Simpson JA , Price RN . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Primaquine is used to eliminate Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites, but its optimal dosing regimen remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of different primaquine dosing regimens to prevent P vivax recurrence. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, and if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days, where primaquine was commenced within 7 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. We assessed the effects of total dose and duration of primaquine regimens on the rate of first P vivax recurrence between day 7 and day 180 by Cox's proportional hazards regression (efficacy analysis). The effect of primaquine daily dose on gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 was assessed by modified Poisson regression (tolerability analysis). The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 23 studies with patient-level data from 6879 patients from 16 countries were included in the efficacy analysis. At day 180, the risk of recurrence was 51·0% (95% CI 48·2-53·9) in 1470 patients treated without primaquine, 19·3% (16·9-21·9) in 2569 patients treated with a low total dose of primaquine (approximately 3·5 mg/kg), and 8·1% (7·0-9·4) in 2811 patients treated with a high total dose of primaquine (approximately 7 mg/kg), regardless of primaquine treatment duration. Compared with treatment without primaquine, the rate of P vivax recurrence was lower after treatment with low-dose primaquine (adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17-0·27; p<0·0001) and high-dose primaquine (0·10, 0·08-0·12; p<0·0001). High-dose primaquine had greater efficacy than low-dose primaquine in regions with high and low relapse periodicity (ie, the time from initial infection to vivax relapse). 16 studies with patient-level data from 5609 patients from ten countries were included in the tolerability analysis. Gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 were reported by 4·0% (95% CI 0·0-8·7) of 893 patients treated without primaquine, 6·2% (0·5-12·0) of 737 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (approximately 0·25 mg/kg per day), 5·9% (1·8-10·1) of 1123 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (approximately 0·5 mg/kg per day) and 10·9% (5·7-16·1) of 1178 patients treated with a high daily dose (approximately 1 mg/kg per day). 20 of 23 studies included in the efficacy analysis and 15 of 16 in the tolerability analysis had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Increasing the total dose of primaquine from 3·5 mg/kg to 7 mg/kg can reduce P vivax recurrences by more than 50% in most endemic regions, with a small associated increase in gastrointestinal symptoms. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture. |
An approach to determining the most common causes of stillbirth in low and middle-income countries: A commentary
Goldenberg RL , Ordi J , Blau DM , Rakislova N , Kulkarni V , Ghanchi NK , Saleem S , Goudar SS , Goco N , Paganelli C , McClure EM . Gates Open Res 2023 7 102 Stillbirth, one of the most common adverse pregnancy outcomes, is especially prevalent in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Understanding the causes of stillbirth is crucial to developing effective interventions. In this commentary, investigators working across several LMICs discuss the most useful investigations to determine causes of stillbirths in LMICs. Useful data were defined as 1) feasible to obtain accurately and 2) informative to determine or help eliminate a cause of death. Recently, new tools for LMIC settings to determine cause of death in stillbirths, including minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) - a method using needle biopsies to obtain internal organ tissue from deceased fetuses for histology and pathogen identification in those tissues have become available. While placental histology has been available for some time, the development of the Amsterdam Criteria in 2016 has provided a useful framework to categorize placental lesions. The authors recommend focusing on the clinical history, the placental evaluation, the external examination of the fetus, and, when available, fetal tissue obtained by MITS, especially of the lung (focused on histology and microbiology) and brain/cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) and fetal blood (focused on microbiological analysis). The authors recognize that this approach may not identify some causes of stillbirth, including some genetic abnormalities and internal organ anomalies, but believe it will identify the most common causes of stillbirth, and most of the preventable causes. |
Primaquine dose and the risk of haemolysis in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis
Rajasekhar M , Simpson JA , Ley B , Edler P , Chu CS , Abreha T , Awab GR , Baird JK , Bancone G , Barber BE , Grigg MJ , Hwang J , Karunajeewa H , Lacerda MVG , Ladeia-Andrade S , Llanos-Cuentas A , Pukrittayakamee S , Rijal KR , Saravu K , Sutanto I , Taylor WRJ , Thriemer K , Watson JA , Guerin PJ , White NJ , Price RN , Commons RJ . Lancet Infect Dis 2023 BACKGROUND: Primaquine radical cure is used to treat dormant liver-stage parasites and prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria but is limited by concerns of haemolysis. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the haematological safety of different primaquine regimens for P vivax radical cure. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days where primaquine was commenced within 3 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine), and if they recorded haemoglobin or haematocrit concentrations on day 0. We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. The main outcome was haemoglobin reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL by day 14. Haemoglobin concentration changes between day 0 and days 2-3 and between day 0 and days 5-7 were assessed by mixed-effects linear regression for patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of (1) 30% or higher and (2) between 30% and less than 70%. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470 and CRD42022303680. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 18 studies with patient-level data from 5462 patients from 15 countries were included in the analysis. A haemoglobin reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL occurred in one (0·1%) of 1208 patients treated without primaquine, none of 893 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (<0·375 mg/kg per day), five (0·3%) of 1464 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (0·375 mg/kg per day to <0·75 mg/kg per day), and six (0·5%) of 1269 patients treated with a high daily dose (≥0·75 mg/kg per day). The covariate-adjusted mean estimated haemoglobin changes at days 2-3 were -0·6 g/dL (95% CI -0·7 to -0·5), -0·7 g/dL (-0·8 to -0·5), -0·6 g/dL (-0·7 to -0·4), and -0·5 g/dL (-0·7 to -0·4), respectively. In 51 patients with G6PD activity between 30% and less than 70%, the adjusted mean haemoglobin concentration on days 2-3 decreased as G6PD activity decreased; two patients in this group who were treated with a high daily dose of primaquine had a reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL. 17 of 18 included studies had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Treatment of patients with G6PD activity of 30% or higher with 0·25-0·5 mg/kg per day primaquine regimens and patients with G6PD activity of 70% or higher with 0·25-1 mg/kg per day regimens were associated with similar risks of haemolysis to those in patients treated without primaquine, supporting the safe use of primaquine radical cure at these doses. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture. |
Provider adherence to clinical care recommendations for infants and children who died in seven low- and middle-income countries in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network
Rees CA , Igunza KA , Madewell ZJ , Akelo V , Onyango D , El Arifeen S , Gurley ES , Hossain MZ , Rahman A , Alam M , Scott JAG , Assefa N , Madrid L , Belachew A , Leulseged H , Kotloff KL , Sow SO , Tapia MD , Keita AM , Sidibe D , Sitoe A , Varo R , Ajanovic S , Bassat Q , Mandomando I , Tippett Barr BA , Ogbuanu I , Cain CJ , Bassey IA , Luke R , Gassama K , Madhi S , Dangor Z , Mahtab S , Velaphi S , du Toit J , Mutevedzi PC , Blau DM , Breiman RF , Whitney CG . EClinicalMedicine 2023 63 102198 BACKGROUND: Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration. FINDINGS: CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h. INTERPRETATION: Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
Asthma-associated emergency department visits during the Canadian wildfire smoke episodes - United States, April- August 2023
McArdle CE , Dowling TC , Carey K , DeVies J , Johns D , Gates AL , Stein Z , van Santen KL , Radhakrishnan L , Kite-Powell A , Soetebier K , Sacks JD , Sircar K , Hartnett KP , Mirabelli MC . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2023 72 (34) 926-932 During April 30-August 4, 2023, smoke originating from wildfires in Canada affected most of the contiguous United States. CDC used National Syndromic Surveillance Program data to assess numbers and percentages of asthma-associated emergency department (ED) visits on days with wildfire smoke, compared with days without wildfire smoke. Wildfire smoke days were defined as days when concentrations of particulate matter (particles generally ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) (PM(2.5)) triggered an Air Quality Index ≥101, corresponding to the air quality categorization, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups." Changes in asthma-associated ED visits were assessed across U.S. Department of Health and Human Services regions and by age. Overall, asthma-associated ED visits were 17% higher than expected during the 19 days with wildfire smoke that occurred during the study period; larger increases were observed in regions that experienced higher numbers of continuous wildfire smoke days and among persons aged 5-17 and 18-64 years. These results can help guide emergency response planning and public health communication strategies, especially in U.S. regions where wildfire smoke exposure was previously uncommon. |
Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation
Kalkowska DA , Wassilak SG , Wiesen E , FEstivariz C , Burns CC , Badizadegan K , Thompson KM . Gates Open Res 2023 7 55 Background: The polio eradication endgame continues to increase in complexity. With polio cases caused by wild poliovirus type 1 and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses of all three types (1, 2 and 3) reported in 2022, the number, formulation, and use of poliovirus vaccines poses challenges for national immunization programs and vaccine suppliers. Prior poliovirus transmission modeling of globally-coordinated type-specific cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) assumed creation of Sabin monovalent OPV (mOPV) stockpiles for emergencies and explored the potential need to restart OPV if the world reached a specified cumulative threshold number of cases after OPV cessation. Methods: We document the actual experience of type 2 OPV (OPV2) cessation and reconsider prior modeling assumptions related to OPV restart. We develop updated decision trees of national immunization options for poliovirus vaccines considering different possibilities for OPV restart. Results: While OPV restart represented a hypothetical situation for risk management and contingency planning to support the 2013-2018 Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan, the actual epidemiological experience since OPV2 cessation raises questions about what, if any, trigger(s) could lead to restarting the use of OPV2 in routine immunization and/or plans for potential future restart of type 1 and 3 OPV after their respective cessation. The emergency use listing of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) and continued evaluation of nOPV for types 1 and/or 3 add further complexity by increasing the combinations of possible OPV formulations for OPV restart. Conclusions: Expanding on a 2019 discussion of the logistical challenges and implications of restarting OPV, we find a complex structure of the many options and many issues related to OPV restart decisions and policies as of early 2023. We anticipate many challenges for forecasting prospective vaccine supply needs during the polio endgame due to increasing potential combinations of poliovirus vaccine choices. |
Community health impacts after a jet fuel leak contaminated a drinking water system: Oahu, Hawaii, November 2021
Miko S , Poniatowski AR , Troeschel AN , Felton DJ , Banerji S , Bolduc MLF , Bronstein AC , Cavanaugh AM , Edge C , Gates AL , Jarvis M , Mintz NA , Parasram V , Rayman J , Smith AR , Wagner JC , Gerhardstein BG , Orr MF . J Water Health 2023 21 (7) 956-971 BACKGROUND: In 2021, a large petroleum leak contaminated a water source that supplied drinking water to military and civilians in Oahu, Hawaii. METHODS: We conducted an Assessment of Chemical Exposures (ACE) survey and supplemented that information with complementary data sources: (1) poison center caller records; (2) emergency department visit data; and (3) a key informant questionnaire. RESULTS: Among 2,289 survey participants, 86% reported ≥1 new or worsening symptom, 75% of which lasted ≥30 days, and 37% sought medical care. Most (n = 1,653, 72%) reported new mental health symptoms. Among equally observable symptoms across age groups, proportions of children ≤2 years experiencing vomiting, runny nose, skin rashes, and coughing (33, 46, 56, and 35%, respectively) were higher than other age groups. Poison center calls increased the first 2 weeks after the contamination, while emergency department visits increased in early December 2021. Key informant interviews revealed themes of lack of support, mental health symptoms, and long-term health impact concerns. DISCUSSION: This event led to widespread exposure to petroleum products and negatively affected thousands of people. Follow-up health surveys or interventions should give special consideration to longer-term physical and mental health, especially children due to their unique sensitivity to environmental exposures. |
Protocol for a sequential, prospective meta-analysis to describe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the pregnancy and postpartum periods (preprint)
Smith ER , Oakley E , He S , Zavala R , Ferguson K , Miller L , Grandner GW , Abejirinde IO , Afshar Y , Ahmadzia H , Aldrovandi G , Akelo V , Tippett Barr BA , Bevilacqua E , Brandt JS , Broutet N , Fernández Buhigas I , Carrillo J , Clifton R , Conry J , Cosmi E , Delgado-López C , Divakar H , Driscoll AJ , Favre G , Flaherman V , Gale C , Gil MM , Godwin C , Gottlieb S , Hernandez Bellolio O , Kara E , Khagayi S , Kim CR , Knight M , Kotloff K , Lanzone A , Le Doare K , Lees C , Litman E , Lokken EM , Laurita Longo V , Magee LA , Martinez-Portilla RJ , McClure E , Metz TD , Money D , Mullins E , Nachega JB , Panchaud A , Playle R , Poon LC , Raiten D , Regan L , Rukundo G , Sanin-Blair J , Temmerman M , Thorson A , Thwin S , Tolosa JE , Townson J , Valencia-Prado M , Visentin S , von Dadelszen P , Adams Waldorf K , Whitehead C , Yang H , Thorlund K , Tielsch JM . medRxiv 2022 2020.11.08.20228056 We urgently need answers to basic epidemiological questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant and postpartum women and its effect on their newborns. While many national registries, health facilities, and research groups are collecting relevant data, we need a collaborative and methodologically rigorous approach to better combine these data and address knowledge gaps, especially those related to rare outcomes. We propose that using a sequential, prospective meta-analysis (PMA) is the best approach to generate data for policy- and practice-oriented guidelines. As the pandemic evolves, additional studies identified retrospectively by the steering committee or through living systematic reviews will be invited to participate in this PMA. Investigators can contribute to the PMA by either submitting individual patient data or running standardized code to generate aggregate data estimates. For the primary analysis, we will pool data using two-stage meta-analysis methods. The meta-analyses will be updated as additional data accrue in each contributing study and as additional studies meet study-specific time or data accrual thresholds for sharing. At the time of publication, investigators of 25 studies, including more than 76,000 pregnancies, in 41 countries had agreed to share data for this analysis. Among the included studies, 12 have a contemporaneous comparison group of pregnancies without COVID-19, and four studies include a comparison group of non-pregnant women of reproductive age with COVID-19. Protocols and updates will be maintained publicly. Results will be shared with key stakeholders, including the World Health Organization (WHO) Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health (MNCAH) Research Working Group. Data contributors will share results with local stakeholders. Scientific publications will be published in open-access journals on an ongoing basis.Competing Interest StatementClare Whitehead declares a a relationship with the following entities, Ferring Pharmaceuticals COVID19 Investigational, Grant, NHMRC Fellowship (salary support). Alice Panchaud declares the following research grants to institution: H2020-Grant (Consortium member of Innovative medicine initiative call 13 topic 9) (ConcePTION), Efficacy and safety studies on Medicines EMA/2017/09/PE/11, Lot 4, WP 2 lead (CONSIGN: Study on impact of COVID-19 infection and medicines in pregnancy), Safety monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU Reopening of competition no. 20 under a framework contract following procurement procedure EMA/2017/09/PE (Lot 3) 4. Federal Office of Public Health (207000 CHF). (The COVI-Preg registry). Edward Mullins declares a relationship with the following entities National Institute for Health Research (Project grant for PAN COVID study) Deborah Money declares a relationship with the following entities, Canadian Institutes of Health Research (payments to my institution only), Public Health Agency of Canada (payments to my institution only), BC Womens Foundation (payments to my institution only) and is a Member of the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force sponsored by the Canadian government. Torri D. Metz declares a relationship with the following entities, Pfizer (site Principal Investigator for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy study, money paid to institution and member of Medical Advisory Board for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy study, money paid to me), NICHD (subcommittee Chair for the NICHD Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network Gestational Research Assessments of COVID-19 (GRAVID) study), and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (board member). Erica Lokken declares a relationship with the following entity, US NIH (paid institution). Karen L. Kotloff declares a relationship with the following entity, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Siran He declares a relationship with the following entity, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundtion (payments made to my institution). Valerie Flaherman declares a relationship with the following entities, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (payments to my institution), Yellow Chair Foundati n (payments to my institution), Robert Woods Johnson Foundation (payments to my institution), CDC Foundation, California Health Care Foundation (payments to my institution), Tara Health Foundation (payments to my institution), UCSF Womens Health Center of Excellence (payments to my institution) and California Department of Health Care Services (payments made to my institution). Jose Sanin-Blair declares a relationship with the following entity, Ferring Pharmaceuticals which give a grant ($10,000) for the expenses of RECOGEST trial and is a part of the Columbian Federation of Perinatology Yalda Afshar declares a relationship with the following entities, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (payments made to my institution), CDC Foundation (payments made to my institution), Robert Woods Johnson Foundation (payments made to my institution), and UCLA Deans Office COVID-19 research (payments made to my institution). Rebecca Cliffton declares a relationship with the following entity, NIH HD36801 (MFMU Network DCC).Clinical TrialPROSPERO ID: 188955Funding StatementFunded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant to Emily Smith (INV-022057) at George Washington University and a grant to Emily Smith via a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to Stephanie Gaw (INV-017035) at University of California San Francisco.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This is a protocol paper and thus exempt from ethical approval. Ultimately, the meta-analysis study is exempt from human research ethics approval as the study authors will be synthesizing de-identified or aggregate data.I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThis is a protocol paper and there is no related data to share. |
Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: A multicohort study in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Ghana (preprint)
Aiemjoy K , Seidman JC , Saha S , Munira SJ , Islam Sajib MS , Sium SMA , Sarkar A , Alam N , Zahan FN , Kabir MS , Tamrakar D , Vaidya K , Shrestha R , Shakya J , Katuwal N , Shrestha S , Yousafzai MT , Iqbal J , Dehraj IF , Ladak Y , Maria N , Adnan M , Pervaiz S , Carter AS , Longley AT , Fraser C , Ryan ET , Nodoushani A , Fasano A , Leonard MM , Kenyon V , Bogoch II , Jeon HJ , Haselbeck A , Park SE , Zellweger RM , Marks F , Owusu-Dabo E , Adu-Sarkodie Y , Owusu M , Teunis P , Luby SP , Garrett DO , Qamar FN , Saha SK , Charles RC , Andrews JR . medRxiv 2022 2021.10.20.21265277 Background The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae, is largely unknown in regions lacking blood culture surveillance. New serologic markers have proven accurate in diagnosing enteric fever, but whether they could be used to reliably estimate population-level incidence is unknown.Methods We collected longitudinal blood samples from blood culture-confirmed enteric fever cases enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to Hemolysin E (HlyE) and S. Typhi lipopolysaccharide (LPS). We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titers and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys.Findings The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children <5 years ranged between 58.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 42.1 - 81.4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh to 6.6 (95% CI: 4.3-9.9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates.Interpretation The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographic scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographic regions and time.Funding This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-000572).Evidence before this study Previous studies have identified serologic responses to two antigens (Hemolysin E [HlyE] and Salmonella lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) as promising diagnostic markers of acute typhoidal Salmonella infection. We reviewed the evidence for seroepidemiology tools for enteric fever available as of November 01, 2021, by searching the National Library of Medicine article database and medRxiv for preprint publications, published in English, using the terms “enteric fever”, “typhoid fever”, “Salmonella Typhi”, “Salmonella Paratyphi”, “typhoidal Salmonella”, “Hemolysin E”, “Salmonella lipopolysaccharide”, “seroconversion”, “serosurveillance”, “seroepidemiology”, “seroprevalence” and “seropositivity.” We found no studies using HlyE or LPS as markers to measure the incidence or prevalence of enteric fever in a population. Anti-Vi IgG responses were used as a marker of population seroprevalence in cross-sectional studies conducted in South Africa, Fiji, and Nepal, but were not used to calculate population-based incidence estimates.Added value of this study We developed and validated a method to estimate typhoidal Salmonella incidence in cross-sectional population samples using antibody responses measured from dried blood spots. First, using longitudinal dried blood spots collected from over 1400 blood culture-confirmed cases in four countries, we modeled the longitudinal dynamics of antibody responses for up to two years following infection, accounting for heterogeneity in antibody responses and age-dependence. We found that longitudinal antibody responses were highly consistent across four countries on two continents and did not differ by clinical severity. We then used these antibody kinetic parameters to estimate incidence in population-based samples in six communities across the four countries, where concomitant population-based incidence was measured using blood cultures. Seroincidence estimates were much higher than blood-culture-based case estimates across all six sites, suggestive of a high incidence of asymptomatic or unrecognized infections. Still, the rank order of seroincidence and culture-based incidence rates were the same, with the highest rates in Bangladesh and lowest in Ghana.Implications of all the available evidence Many a -risk low- and middle-income countries lack data on typhoid incidence needed to inform and evaluate vaccine introduction. Even in countries where incidence estimates are available, data are typically geographically and temporally sparse due to the resources necessary to initiate and sustain blood culture surveillance. We found that typhoidal Salmonella infection incidence can be estimated from community-based serosurveys using dried blood spots, representing an efficient and scalable approach for generating the typhoid burden data needed to inform typhoid control programs in resource-constrained settings.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis study was funded by th eBill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant INV-000572)Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Institutional Review Boards in the United States (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Stanford University Institutional Review Board), Bangladesh (Bangladesh Institute of Child Health Ethical Review Committee), Nepal (Nepal Health Research Council Ethical Review Board), Pakistan (AKU Ethic Review Committee and Pakistan National Bioethics Committee), Korea (International Vaccine Institute IRB), Belgium (Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Institutional Review Board) and Ghana (Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Committee on Human Research, Publication and Ethics) approved the study forms and protocols.I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors |
A Remote Household-Based Approach to Influenza Self-Testing and Antiviral Treatment (preprint)
Heimonen J , McCulloch DJ , O'Hanlon J , Kim AE , Emanuels A , Wilcox N , Brandstetter E , Stewart M , McCune D , Fry S , Parsons S , Hughes JP , Jackson ML , Uyeki TM , Boeckh M , Starita LM , Bedford T , Englund JA , Chu HY . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.01.21250973 Background Households represent important settings for transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Current influenza diagnosis and treatment relies upon patient visits to healthcare facilities, which may lead to under-diagnosis and treatment delays. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of an at-home approach to influenza diagnosis and treatment via home testing, telehealth care, and rapid antiviral home delivery.Methods We conducted a pilot interventional study of remote influenza diagnosis and treatment in Seattle-area households with children during the 2019-2020 influenza season using pre-positioned nasal swabs and home influenza tests. Home monitoring for respiratory symptoms occurred weekly; if symptoms were reported within 48 hours of onset, participants collected mid-nasal swabs and used a rapid home-based influenza immunoassay. An additional home-collected swab was returned to a laboratory for confirmatory influenza RT-PCR testing. Baloxavir antiviral treatment was prescribed and delivered to symptomatic and age-eligible participants, following a telehealth encounter.Results 124 households comprising 481 individuals self-monitored for respiratory symptoms, with 58 home tests administered. 12 home tests were positive for influenza, of which 8 were true positives confirmed by RT-PCR. The sensitivity and specificity of the home influenza test was 72.7% and 96.2%, respectively. There were 8 home deliveries of baloxavir, with 7 (87.5%) occurring within 3 hours of prescription, and all within 48 hours of symptom onset.Conclusions We demonstrate the feasibility of self-testing combined with rapid home delivery of influenza antiviral treatment. This approach may be an important control strategy for influenza epidemics and pandemics.Summary In this pilot study, 481 individuals self-monitored for respiratory symptoms. Of 58 home tests, 12 were influenza-positive. There were 8 baloxavir home deliveries within 48 hours of illness onset. A home-based approach to influenza diagnosis and treatment could be feasible.Competing Interest StatementH.Y.C. has received research support from GlaxoSmithKline, Novavax, and Sanofi Pasteur; J.A.E. has received research support from AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKine, Merck, and Pfizer and served as a consultant for Sanofi Pasteur and Meissa Vaccines. M.L.J. has received research support from Sanofi Pasteur. M.B. receives research support and serves as a consultant for Ansun Biopharma, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, and Vir Biotechnology; and serves as a consultant to GlaxoSmithKline, ReViral, ADMA, Pulmocdie and ModernaClinical TrialNCT04141930Funding StatementThe Seattle Flu Study is funded by Gates Ventures. The funder was not involved in the design of the study, does not have any ownership over the management and conduct of the study, the data, or the rights to publish.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:University of Washington Institutional Review Board (STUDY00008200)All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData and code used for analyses may be available upon request. |
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset (preprint)
Cramer EY , Huang Y , Wang Y , Ray EL , Cornell M , Bracher J , Brennen A , Rivadeneira AJC , Gerding A , House K , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mody V , Mody V , Niemi J , Stark A , Shah A , Wattanchit N , Zorn MW , Reich NG , US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium , Lopez VK , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M . medRxiv 2021 2021.11.04.21265886 Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information & Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub |
Effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on antibody responses to malaria, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens among children: A cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Niger (preprint)
Arzika AM , Maliki R , Goodhew EB , Rogier E , Priest JW , Lebas E , O'Brien KS , Le V , Oldenburg CE , Doan T , Porco TC , Keenan JD , Lietman TM , Martin DL , Arnold BF . medRxiv 2021 2021.04.23.21255957 Background The Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial in Niger, Malawi, and Tanzania found that biannual mass distribution of azithromycin to children younger than 5 years led to a 13.5% reduction in all-cause mortality. Additional endpoints in the trial have attempted to elucidate the mechanisms for mortality reduction. In this pre-specified secondary analysis, we assessed the effect of azithromycin compared with placebo on IgG- based measures of infectious disease exposure with a multiplex bead assay that included antigens to malaria parasites (Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, P. ovale), bacterial pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, Salmonella enterica, Streptococcus pyogenes) and protozoans (Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia duodenales).Methods and Findings Thirty communities in rural Niger were randomized 1:1 to biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo among children ages 1-59 months. The analysis included 5,642 blood specimens collected from 3,814 children ages 1-59 months, measured at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of follow-up in a repeated cross-sectional design. Campylobacter spp. seroprevalence averaged over all study visits was lower in azithromycin communities compared to placebo (91% vs 94%, difference = –3%, 95% CI: –5%, –1%; P=0.03), which corresponded to a 29% lower seroconversion rate (1.30 versus 1.84 seroconversions per year, hazard ratio = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.89; P=0.004). Antibody-based measures of infection with P. falciparum and group A streptococcus were consistently lower in azithromycin communities, but were not statistically different from placebo, and there were no other differences across pathogens. Strengths of the study included masking of participants, investigators, and analysts, high treatment coverage, large sample size, and objective outcomes. Principal limitations included the timing of blood collection with respect to treatment (approximately 6 months later, which could have missed transient effects in the weeks immediately following treatment), and the durability of IgG response following clearance of infection. Both limitations would lead the trial to under-estimate effects on antibody-based measures of infection.Conclusions The reduction in Campylobacter spp. despite these limitations suggests an effect on carriage, findings which align with an independent metagenomic analysis of rectal swabs collected in the same villages and with previously reported reductions in dysentery-associated mortality. Given significant sequelae of Campylobacter infection among preschool aged children, our results support at least one possible mechanism through which biannual mass distribution of azithromycin likely reduced mortality in this study population.Competing Interest StatementThis work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (award no. OPP1032340 to TML) and was supported in part by an unrestricted grant from Research to Prevent Blindness and by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (award no. K01-AI119180 to BFA). The Gates Foundation approved the study design, but had no role in data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. The authors declare no competing interests. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the Public Health Service or by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Clinical TrialNCT02048007Funding StatementThis work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (award no. OPP1032340 to TML) and was supported in part by an unrestricted grant from Research to Prevent Blindness and by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (award no. K01-AI119180 to BFA). The Gates Foundation approved the study design, but had no role in data collection, data nalysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:The trial protocol was reviewed and approved by the Committee on Human Research at the University of California, San Francisco, and the Niger Ministry of Health's Ethical Committee. Parents or guardians of enrolled children provided oral consent before each azithromycin or placebo treatment and at each specimen collection visit. Parents or guardians were instructed to report any adverse event within 7 days of treatment by contacting their village representative, who then reported events to the site coordinator and UCSF. An independent Data and Safety Monitoring Committee provided additional oversight. CDC researchers had access to de-identified samples for analysis (no personally identifying information).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData and computational notebooks used to conduct the analyses are available through the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/954bt) and Dryad (xx DOI forthcoming xx). Analyses used R statistical software, version 4.0.2. https://osf.io/954bt |
Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016-2018: A hidden Markov modelling study (preprint)
Thindwa D , Wolter N , Pinsent A , Carrim M , Ojal J , Tempia S , Moyes J , McMorrow M , Kleynhans J , Gottberg AV , French N , Cohen C , Flasche S . medRxiv 2021 2021.05.21.21257622 Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for 10 months for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant’s age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9-80.5%) than older children (5-17 years-old) (31.7-50.0%) or adults (11.5-23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7-15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2-12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6 - 6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507-714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1-435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.Author summary We assessed the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission by applying a hidden Markov model to pneumococcal cohort data comprising 115,595 nasopharyngeal samples from 1,684 individuals in rural and urban settings in South Africa. We estimated 14.4% of sample misclassifications (false negatives), representing 85.6% sensitivity of a test that was used to detect pneumococcus. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence and acquisition rates, and average duration were usually higher in younger or older children than adults. The use of ART and antibiotics reduced the average carriage duration across all age and HIV groups, and carriage acquisition risks increased in larger household sizes. Despite the longer average carriage duration and higher median carriage density in HIV-infected than HIV-uninfected adults, we found similar carriage acquisition and onward transmission risks in the dual groups. These findings suggest that vaccinating HIV-infected adults on ART with PCV would reduce their risk for pneumococcal disease but may add little to the indirect protection against carriage of the rest of the population.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Clinical TrialNCT02519803Clinical Protocols https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.06.21249313v1.full.pdf Funding StatementThis research was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit on Mucosal Pathogens under the UK Government. PHIRST study was funded by a cooperative agreement with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (grant number 1U01IP001048) (https://www.cdc.gov) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant number: OPP1164778) (https://www.gatesfoundation.org). DT, OJ are supported by th National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit on Mucosal Pathogens (MPRU) using UK aid from the UK Government (16/136/46) (https://www.mpru.org). AP is supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (https://www.gatesfoundation.org). SF is supported by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (Grant number 208812/Z/17/Z) (https://wellcome.org). CC and AvG receive grant support through their institution from Sanofi Pasteur (https://www.sanofi.com/en). The funders had no involvement in the study design; collection, analysis and interpretation of data; writing of the report; or decision to submit the article for publication.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:The longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data described in this study were obtained from consenting South African children and adults as part of the PHIRST study. The use of data was granted by the University of Witwatersrand, Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) and the Protocol Review Committee (PRC) under approval 150808, the US CDC Institutional Review Board relied on the local review (6840), and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Observational Research Ethics Committee under approval 17902.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData cannot be shared publicly because of confidentiality. Data are available from the National Institute of Communicable Disease (NICD) if authorised by Institutional Data Access / Ethics Committee (contact via Professor Cherly Cohen, cherylc@nicd.ac.za) for researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data. The code underlying the results presented in the study are available from GitHub through the following link (https://github.com/deusthindwa/hmm.pneumococcus.hiv.south-africa) or contact Deus Thindwa through email: deus.thindwa@gmail.com |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Cohort Profile: a Prospective Household cohort study of Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial virus, and other respiratory pathogens community burden and Transmission dynamics in South Africa (PHIRST), 2016-2018 (preprint)
Cohen C , McMorrow ML , Martinson NA , Kahn K , Treurnicht FK , Moyes J , Mkhencele T , Hellferscee O , Lebina L , Moroe M , Motlhaoleng K , Gómez-Olivé FX , Wagner R , Tollman S , Wafawanaka F , Ngobeni S , Kleynhans J , Mathunjwa A , Buys A , Maake L , Wolter N , Carrim M , Piketh S , Language B , Mathee A , von Gottberg A , Tempia S . medRxiv 2021 2021.01.06.21249313 Purpose The PHIRST study (Prospective Household cohort study of Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial virus, and other respiratory pathogens community burden and Transmission dynamics in South Africa) aimed to estimate the community burden of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) including the incidence of infection, symptomatic fraction, and disease severity, and to assess household transmission. We further aimed to estimate the impact of HIV infection and age on disease burden and transmission, and to assess the burden of Bordetella pertussis and Streptococcus pneumoniae.Participants We enrolled 1684 individuals in 327 randomly selected households in two sites (rural Agincourt subdistrict, Mpumalanga Province and urban Jouberton Township, North West Province) over 3 consecutive influenza and RSV seasons. A new cohort of households was enrolled each year. Eligible households included those with >2 household members where ≥80% of household members provided consent (and assent for children aged 7-17 years). Enrolled household members were sampled with nasopharyngeal swabs twice weekly during the RSV and influenza seasons of the year of enrolment. Serology samples were collected at enrolment and before and after the influenza season annually.Findings to date There were 122,113 potential individual follow-up visits over the 3 years, and participants were interviewed for 105,783 (87%) of these. Out of 105,683 nasopharyngeal swabs from follow-up visits, 1,258 (1%), 1,026 (1%), 273 (<1%), 38,829 (37%) tested positive on PCR for influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, pertussis and pneumococcus respectively.Future plans Future planned analyses include analysis of influenza serology results and RSV burden and transmission. Households enrolled in the PHIRST study during 2016-2018 were eligible for inclusion in a study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission initiated in July 2020. This study uses similar testing frequency and household selection methods to assess the community burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the role of asymptomatic infection in virus transmission.Registration Clinical trials.gov NCT02519803Strengths and limitations of this studyPHIRST was conducted in urban and rural African settings with high HIV prevalence, allowing assessment of the effect of HIV on community burden and transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens.Households were selected randomly to provide a representative sample of the community. Twice weekly sampling from each cohort of individuals for 6-10 months irrespective of symptoms allows estimation of community burden, household secondary infection risk, and serial interval including asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic episodes.Polymerase chain reaction testing of >100,000 nasopharyngeal swab samples for multiple pathogens (influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, pertussis and Streptoccocus pneumonia) allows detailed examination of disease burden and transmission and pathogen interactionsPHIRST was not powered to assess severe outcomes (i.e. hospitalisation and death).We only examined four pathogens, but other micro-organisms may be important. Samples have been stored which could allow us to implement broader multi-pathogen testing in the future.Competing Interest StatementCheryl Cohen has received research grants awarded to her institution from Sanofi Pasteur, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cheryl Cohen has had costs for travel to a meeting supported by Parexel. Maimuna Carrim was awarded the Robert Austrian Research Award in Pneumococcal Vaccinology sponsored by Pfizer. Neil Martinson has a research grant awarded to his institution by Pfizer South Africa. Anne von Gottberg has received research grants awarded to her institution from Sanofi Pasteur, Pfizer and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Clinical TrialNCT02519803Funding StatementThe study was funded through a cooperative agreement with the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (grant number 1U01IP001048). Testing for RSV and pneumococcus was supported by the Bill and Melin a Gates Foundation (Grant number: OPP1164778). Testing for B. pertussis was supported by Sanofi Pasteur (Grant number: PER00059). The Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System is a node of the South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN) and is supported by the National Department of Science and Innovation, the Medical Research Council and the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, and the Wellcome Trust, UK (grants 058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z; 085477/B/08/Z).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics CommitteeAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesPrimary study results for influenza as well as a description of the quality of housing at the two sites have been prepared and submitted to international peer-reviewed journals. Analysis of the data for other pathogens is planned to be completed by December 2021. Additional modelling and serologic studies will be concluded within 3 years and primary de-identified data should be publicly available no later than November 2023. The investigators welcome enquiries about possible collaborations and access to the data set. Investigators interested in more details about this study, or in accessing these resources, should contact the principle investigator, Prof Cheryl Cohen, at NICD (cherylc{at}nicd.ac.za). |
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Seattle, Washington—October 2019–April 2020 (preprint)
McCulloch DJ , Jackson ML , Hughes JP , Lester S , Mills L , Freeman B , Rasheed MAU , Thornburg NJ , Chu HY . medRxiv 2020 2020.12.07.20244103 Estimating prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is important to determine disease burden. We tested residual samples from 763 Seattle-area adults for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Prevalence rose from 0% to 1.2% between October 2019–April 2020, suggesting a small percentage of this metropolitan-area cohort had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at that time.Competing Interest StatementHelen Y. Chu receives research support from Cepheid and is a consultant for Merck, Pfizer, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and Ellume. Michael L. Jackson receives research funding from Sanofi Pasteur. Denise J. McCulloch, James P. Hughes, Sandra Lester, Lisa Mills, Brandi Freeman, Mohammad Ata Ut Rasheed, and Natalie J. Thornburg, declare no competing interests.Funding StatementThis work was supported by the University of Washington Department of Medicine Scholars Award to Helen Chu.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:University of Washington IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe data analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. |
Linked surveillance and genetic data uncovers programmatically relevant geographic scale of Guinea worm transmission in Chad (preprint)
Ribado JV , Li N , Thiele E , Lyons H , Cotton JA , Weiss A , Tchindebet Ouakou P , Moundai T , Zirimwabagabo H , Guagliardo SAJ , Chabot-Couture G , Proctor JL . medRxiv 2020 2020.10.05.20207324 Background Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission.Methodology/Principal Findings We coupled genomic and surveillance data from 2012-2018 cases to investigate the modes of transmission between hosts and the geographic connectivity for genetically similar worm populations. Eighty-six variants across three loci on the mitochondrial genome identified 41 genetically distinct worm genotypes. Spatiotemporal modeling reveals genetically identical worms are within a median range of 18.6 kilometers of each other, but largely within approximately 50 kilometers. Genetically identical worms vary in their degree of spatial clustering, suggesting there may be different factors that favor or constrain transmission. Each worm is surrounded by five to ten genetically distinct worms within a 50 kilometer radius. In an independent population, we show that more variants revealed in whole mitochondrial genome data improved the discrimination between worm pairs.Conclusions/Significance In the largest study linking genetic and surveillance data to date of Guinea worm cases in Chad, we show genetic similarity and modeling can contribute to understanding local transmission. The overlap of genetically distinct worms in quantitatively identified transmission ranges highlights the necessity for genomic tools to link cases. The improved discrimination between worm pairs from variants identified across the complete mitochondrial genome indicates expanding genomic markers could link cases at a finer scale. These results suggest that scaling up genomic surveillance for Guinea worm may provide additional value for programmatic decision-making critical for monitoring cases and intervention efficacy to achieve elimination.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementJR, GCC, HL, and JLP would like to thank Bill and Melinda Gates for their active support of the Institute for Disease Modeling and their sponsorship through the Global Good Fund. JAC was supported by funding from The Carter Center and Wellcome, via their core support for the Wellcome Sanger Institute (grant WT206194).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:N/A; Worm collection and associated metadata are routine in country surveillance efforts.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesGenomic data and source code will be made available upon publication. Requests for epidemiological data that includes case coordinates must be submitted to and approved by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program. |
Potential strategies for strengthening surveillance of lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa after mass drug administration: targeting older age groups, hotspots, and household members of infected persons (preprint)
Lau CL , Sheel M , Gass K , Fuimaono S , David MC , Won KY , Sheridan S , Graves PM . medRxiv 2020 2020.04.07.20056549 Background Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted mass drug administration (MDA) from 2000-2006. Despite passing Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) in 2011/2012 and 2015, American Samoa failed TAS-3 in 2016, with antigen (Ag) prevalence of 0.7% (95%CI 0.3-1.8%) in 6-7 year-olds. A 2016 community survey (Ag prevalence 6.2% (95%CI 4.4-8.5%) in age ≥8 years) confirmed resurgence. Here, we explore the potential of targeted strategies to strengthen post-MDA surveillance.Methodology/Principal Findings Using Ag data plus new antibody data (Wb123, Bm14, Bm33) from the 2016 surveys, we identified risk factors for seropositivity using multivariable logistic regression. We compared TAS with strategies that targeted high-risk subpopulations (older ages, householders of Ag-positive TAS children [index children]) and/or known hotspots, and used NNTestav (average number needed to test to identify one positive) to compare sampling efficiency.Antibody prevalence in TAS-3 (n=1143) were 1.6% for Bm14 (95%CI 0.9-2.9%), 7.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 6.4-9.6%), and 20.2% for Bm33 (95%CI 16.7-24.3%); and in the community survey (n=2507), 13.9% for Bm14 (95%CI 11.2-17.2%), 27.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 24.6-31.4%), and 47.3% for Bm33 (95%CI 42.1-52.6%). Ag prevalence was 20.7% (95%CI 9.7-53.5%) in households of index children. Higher Ag prevalence was found in males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.01), age ≥18 years (aOR 2.18), residents of Fagali’i (aOR 15.81), and outdoor workers (aOR 2.61). Using Ag, NNTestav ranged from 142.5 for TAS, to <5 for households of index children. NNTestav was lower in older ages, and highest for Ag, followed by Bm14, Wb123 and Bm33 antibodies.Conclusions/Significance We propose a multi-stage surveillance strategy, starting with population-representative sampling (e.g. TAS), followed by targeted strategies in subgroups and locations with low NNTestav. This approach could potentially improve the efficiency of identifying remaining infected persons and residual hotspots. The utility of antibodies in surveillance should also be explored.AUTHOR SUMMARY Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic infection transmitted by mosquito bites. Globally, tens of millions are infected, with many disfigured and disabled by severe damage to their lymphatic systems, such as severe swelling of the legs (elephantiasis) or scrotum (hydrocele). The Global Programme to Eliminate LF (GPELF) aims to interrupt disease transmission through mass drug administration (MDA), and to control illness and suffering in affected persons. The World Health Organization recommends conducting Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) in school children aged 6 to 7 years, to determine if infection rates have dropped to levels where disease transmission is no longer sustainable. From 2000-2006, American Samoa conducted MDA and made significant progress towards eliminating LF. However, despite passing TAS in 2011/2012 and 2015, surveys in 2016 showed evidence of resurgence. Our study explored alternative surveillance strategies and compared their efficiency with TAS. Based on our findings, we recommended that in addition to TAS, strategies that target high-risk populations and hotspots would strengthen surveillance and help countries achieve their goals of LF elimination.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work received financial support from the Coalition for Operational Research on Neglected Tropical Diseases (COR-NTD), which is funded at The Task Force for Global Health primarily by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1053230], the United Kingdom Department for International Development, and by the United States Agency for International Development through its Neglected Tropical Diseases Program. CLL was supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Fellowship (1109035). MS was supported by a fellowship funded by the Westpac Scholars Trust. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decisi n to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe datasets generated and analysed during the present study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. |
Fine-scale heterogeneity in Schistosoma mansoni force of infection measured through antibody response (preprint)
Arnold BF , Kanyi H , Njenga SM , Rawago FO , Priest JW , Secor WE , Lammie PJ , Won KY , Odiere MR . medRxiv 2020 2020.04.10.20061101 Identifying populations with active transmission and monitoring changes in transmission is centrally important in guiding schistosomiasis control programs. Traditionally, human Schistosoma mansoni infections have been detected in stool using microscopy, which is logistically difficult at program scale and has low sensitivity when people have low infection burdens. We compared serological measures of transmission based on antibody response to schistosomiasis soluble egg antigen (SEA) with stool-based measures of infection among 3,663 preschool-age children in an area endemic for S. mansoni in western Kenya. Serological measures of transmission closely aligned with stool-based measures of infection, and serological measures provided better resolution for between-community differences at lower levels of infection. Serology enabled fine- scale measures of heterogeneity in force of infection both geographically and by age. Our results show that serologic surveillance platforms represent an important new opportunity to guide and monitor schistosomiasis control programs.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was supported by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K01 AI119180 to BFA) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1022543 to PJL). The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the Public Health Service or by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData and replication files required to conduct the analyses are available through GitHub and the Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/rnme8. Community location data required to replicate the geostatistical model fits is not publicly available to protect participant confidentiality but is available from the corresponding author upon request, pending appropriate human subjects review and approval. https://osf.io/rnme8 |
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